An active weather pattern will continue for the rest of the week and into next week, with widespread moderate to heavy rain, high-altitude snow, and potential flooding concerns. Flood watch from this afternoon until late Saturday night. Winter Weather Advisory from 4am Saturday to 4am Sunday.
discussion
Humidity from the storm continues to trickle into the area, and there is light rain this morning. In the valley, the rain may occasionally stop during the day, but at the northern end of the valley, the coastal mountains and the western slopes, the topography should keep it raining all day.
Flood advisories remain the same, but the valley threat areas are likely to occur more Saturday than tonight. In some parts of the foothills, all terrain precipitation is slowly piling up tonight, which could cause problems for small streams. Possible flooding concerns in the valley look likely to start later tonight at the northern end of the valley and at the southern end on Saturday.
Many topographical effects and snowmelt cause rivers and streams to rise sharply below the snow surface, and there are some messy, muddy roads within the remaining snowpack.
Winds will be light through Saturday morning, with gusts of about 30 mph in the valley.
New Year’s Eve celebrations continue to trend drier from midnight to midnight, especially in northern and western regions.
Motherlode and adjacent mountain showers seem to continue past midnight. Behind the system, New Year’s Day looks dry, but there are still a few early morning showers on the mountains south of Highway 88.
A northerly wind behind the front late Saturday night will help prevent fog from forming on Sunday morning.
A weaker system will move into the day on Monday, and the morning or afternoon hours are yet to be determined. Snow levels appear much lower, starting at about 2000 feet in Shasta County transitioning to 3500 feet on the western slope. Generally 5 to 6 inches above 5,000 feet at this time, renters are looking at heights below that. Precipitation in this valley appears to be about a third of an inch or less at this time.
Extended Discussion (Tuesday to Friday)
The cluster favors a weak ridge in the region on Tuesday, with the pattern shifting to Wednesday and Thursday. So at this point in the day, it looks mostly dry with a possible warm front moving in on Tuesday night.
The timing of the at least moderate storm system remains uncertain as Europeans favor an earlier landfall than the GFS, but the cluster points to the possibility of an earlier landfall. While it doesn’t look like it will rain as much or as intensely as the current system, the cooler air will mean lower snow levels next week, and winter travel issues could be an issue at times.